Tropical Storm HAIKUI Advisory Paz, 12.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ON THE
LOWER END OF MULTI AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE
WEAKENING CONDITION OF TD 30W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS
SUSTAINING THE DISPLACED CONVECTION. TD HAIKUI IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOL DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA IN THE IN THE LOW LEVELS. TD 30W WILL REACH FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 24 IN THE WESTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AFTER TAU 12 LIKELY DUE TO A WEAK
VORTEX SIGNATURE. DUE TO THE BROAD SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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